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NYSE: CHEVRON CORP - March 2001
April 3, 2001 4:21 PM, PST
How We PinPointed the Entry and Predicted the Exit, CHEVRON CORP (NYSE: CHV)
This stock was first mentioned on this forum on 3/14/2001 when CHV was at $89.50. The DOW was taking a dive.......Nasdaq was doom-and-gloom, the papers were crying for a Greenspan interest-rate adjustment. CNBC was full of "the R-word," everyone wishing a tax cut would bail out the US economy.
This was the headline on 3/14/2001 “[external] Oil issues, prices drop on supply rise - at CBS MarketWatch.” Hehe, news reporters know everything...That’s why they aren’t traders..
So with all this negative outlook, it's a good time to look for a LONG trade, right?
Why not throw some money into the stock market, let's buy something? So what if the indexes are "a falling knife".. Hehehe, you only want to do this when you have great trading strategies.. Otherwise follow the sheep..
The Bread & Butter is one of the most reliable of the 9 DiNapoli
Directional Indicators, as explained in the book "Trading With DiNapoli Levels."
Click chart below for enlargement.
How to Trade the DiNapoli "Bread & Butter" Trade
There is good thrust up starting in late February.. This stock showed up on my list after being scanned by my DiNapoli Thrust Scanner. The scanner looks for stocks which are likely to make surprising moves AGAINST THE TREND.. Just when everyone is selling short, CHV is below the moving average, the MACD is headed down, Stochastic is headed down. I’m thinking this as setting up to be a good BUY!
On March 14th, (see the FibNodes screen in the attached image) there is a very attractive area to buy this stock, in the area of $87.37 to $87.70 .. This area is where the red and green prices are close together on the FibNodes chart. I’ve marked it with a gray ellipse on the chart. Two days later (March 16th) CHV drops down to our entry point.
So where is a logical place to have a stop-loss?? There is a deeper support level at the $84.16 area. So a good place for a stop is below there, say $84.00 or $83.75 … That way our stop is protected by further support, so we could probably exit on a rally if this trade doesn’t work out.. This is standard DiNapoli technique, easy and no magic involved.
Click chart below for enlargement.
Now Look at the Intraday Chart.
Our entry order would be filled on March 15th or 16th, at the confluence level.
Confluence represents two Fibonacci support levels close together, a stonger support level than usual. Notice how the intraday MACD crossover occurs near our entry. This is quite common, though not essential. Waiting for that crossover will increase your chances of success, but sometimes you will miss the move or enter at a slightly worse price.
The FibNodes display in that image shows the profit target at $91.05 . In reality, you should place your exit order a bit before that level, for increased likelihood of getting a fill.. The $87.188 and $93.438 on the FibNodes screen represent the low of March 16th and the high of March 9th. The profit target is the .618 ratio of the difference between those two prices..
The final chart summarizes the entire trade, and shows that our stop never was hit. This is a typical B&B. We have posted many of these on our web forums, though often without this detail. The techniques is fully explained in Joe’s book, "Trading with DiNapoli Levels." Study the B&B, and trade with confidence.
-Neal
Click chart below for enlargement.
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